TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Duchesne | Lutheran South |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 16.9 | 26.3 |
| PA / GAME | 36.2 | 27.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | -18.1 | -1.5 |
| SOS | -6.9 | -0.8 |
| POWER | -20.5 | -1.8 |
LUTHERAN SOUTH WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Lutheran South finished the job, as Duchesne and Lutheran South finished 7-42. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 20-33 final.
The actual margin was 35 points versus MOFO's 13.5-point projection. That produced a 21.5-point margin error, with score errors of 12.9 for Duchesne and 8.6 for Lutheran South.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LUTHERAN SOUTH
MOFO leans toward Lutheran South because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 18.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 13.5-point margin, with Lutheran South carrying a 86% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Lutheran South enters at 26.3 points per game compared with 16.9 for Duchesne. Lutheran South also allows 9.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.8 for Lutheran South and -6.9 for Duchesne. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Lutheran South owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lutheran South has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 18.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.