LINCOLN COLLEGE PREP WRITES THE FINAL WORD

Lincoln College Prep finished the job, as University Academy Charter with Ewing Marion Kauffman and Lincoln College Prep finished 7-10. MOFO's pick of University Academy Charter with Ewing Marion Kauffman missed; the model had projected a 23-22 final.

The actual margin was 3 points versus MOFO's 1.1-point projection. That produced a 4.1-point margin error, with score errors of 15.9 for University Academy Charter with Ewing Marion Kauffman and 11.7 for Lincoln College Prep.

THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD UNIVERSITY ACADEMY CHARTER WITH EWING MARION KAUFFMAN

MOFO leans toward University Academy Charter with Ewing Marion Kauffman because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 1.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.1-point margin, with University Academy Charter with Ewing Marion Kauffman carrying a 54% win probability.

The clearest separator is scoring: University Academy Charter with Ewing Marion Kauffman enters at 23.8 points per game compared with 23.3 for Lincoln College Prep. University Academy Charter with Ewing Marion Kauffman also allows 2.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.

Strength of schedule checks in at -2.2 for University Academy Charter with Ewing Marion Kauffman and -1.0 for Lincoln College Prep. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.