TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Wichita Defenders (KS) | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 24.0 | 32.7 |
| PA / GAME | 24.0 | 29.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +0.0 | +1.1 |
| SOS | +0.0 | +2.6 |
| POWER | +0.0 | +2.0 |
WICHITA DEFENDERS (KS) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Wichita Defenders (KS) finished the job, as Wichita Defenders (KS) and Lincoln finished 30-22. MOFO's pick of Lincoln missed; the model had projected a 27-29 final.
The actual margin was 8 points versus MOFO's 1.9-point projection. That produced a 9.9-point margin error, with score errors of 3.3 for Wichita Defenders (KS) and 6.6 for Lincoln.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LINCOLN
MOFO leans toward Lincoln because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 2.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.9-point margin, with Lincoln carrying a 56% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Lincoln enters at 32.7 points per game compared with 24.0 for Wichita Defenders (KS). Wichita Defenders (KS)'s defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.6 for Lincoln and +0.0 for Wichita Defenders (KS). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low — no season data.
01Lincoln owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lincoln has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 2.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.