LONE JACK WITH KINGSVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD

Lone Jack with Kingsville finished the job, as Lone Jack with Kingsville and Lexington finished 27-6. MOFO's pick of Lexington missed; the model had projected a 25-26 final.

The actual margin was 21 points versus MOFO's 0.7-point projection. That produced a 21.7-point margin error, with score errors of 1.7 for Lone Jack with Kingsville and 19.9 for Lexington.

THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LEXINGTON

MOFO leans toward Lexington because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 4.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.7-point margin, with Lexington carrying a 52% win probability.

Lone Jack with Kingsville actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Lone Jack with Kingsville's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.

Strength of schedule checks in at +1.5 for Lexington and -3.9 for Lone Jack with Kingsville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.