TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Warsaw | Lawson |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 35.1 | 33.3 |
| PA / GAME | 14.4 | 25.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +16.2 | +8.5 |
| SOS | -4.4 | +0.2 |
| POWER | +14.6 | +8.6 |
LAWSON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Lawson finished the job, as Warsaw and Lawson finished 21-23. MOFO's pick of Warsaw missed; the model had projected a 31-23 final.
The actual margin was 2 points versus MOFO's 7.6-point projection. That produced a 9.6-point margin error, with score errors of 9.9 for Warsaw and 0.3 for Lawson.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WARSAW
MOFO leans toward Warsaw because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.6-point margin, with Warsaw carrying a 73% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Warsaw enters at 35.1 points per game compared with 33.3 for Lawson. Warsaw also allows 11.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.4 for Warsaw and +0.2 for Lawson. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Warsaw owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lawson has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.