TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Timberland | Lafayette (Wildwood) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 23.7 | 36.4 |
| PA / GAME | 28.3 | 19.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -6.6 | +13.1 |
| SOS | +1.7 | -2.2 |
| POWER | -6.0 | +12.3 |
LAFAYETTE (WILDWOOD) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Lafayette (Wildwood) finished the job, as Timberland and Lafayette (Wildwood) finished 21-28. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 20-34 final.
The actual margin was 7 points versus MOFO's 14.5-point projection. That produced a 7.5-point margin error, with score errors of 1.2 for Timberland and 6.3 for Lafayette (Wildwood).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LAFAYETTE (WILDWOOD)
MOFO leans toward Lafayette (Wildwood) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 18.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 14.5-point margin, with Lafayette (Wildwood) carrying a 87% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Lafayette (Wildwood) enters at 36.4 points per game compared with 23.7 for Timberland. Lafayette (Wildwood) also allows 8.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -2.2 for Lafayette (Wildwood) and +1.7 for Timberland. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Lafayette (Wildwood) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Timberland has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 18.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.