TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Southern Boone | Kirksville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 20.6 | 20.9 |
| PA / GAME | 25.4 | 22.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -4.1 | -0.8 |
| SOS | +1.8 | +2.5 |
| POWER | -3.5 | +0.0 |
SOUTHERN BOONE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Southern Boone finished the job, as Southern Boone and Kirksville finished 21-3. MOFO's pick of Kirksville missed; the model had projected a 21-24 final.
The actual margin was 18 points versus MOFO's 2.3-point projection. That produced a 20.3-point margin error, with score errors of 0.3 for Southern Boone and 20.6 for Kirksville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD KIRKSVILLE
MOFO leans toward Kirksville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.3-point margin, with Kirksville carrying a 58% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Kirksville enters at 20.9 points per game compared with 20.6 for Southern Boone. Kirksville also allows 2.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.5 for Kirksville and +1.8 for Southern Boone. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Kirksville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Kirksville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.