TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Charleston | Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 24.3 | 19.2 |
| PA / GAME | 25.2 | 24.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -1.0 | -7.0 |
| SOS | -6.1 | -1.4 |
| POWER | -3.1 | -7.5 |
CHARLESTON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Charleston finished the job, as Charleston and Kelly finished 28-21. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 25-22 final.
The actual margin was 7 points versus MOFO's 3.1-point projection. That produced a 3.9-point margin error, with score errors of 3.1 for Charleston and 0.8 for Kelly.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CHARLESTON
MOFO leans toward Charleston because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 4.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.1-point margin, with Charleston carrying a 60% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Charleston enters at 24.3 points per game compared with 19.2 for Kelly. Kelly's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -6.1 for Charleston and -1.4 for Kelly. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Charleston owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Kelly has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 4.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.