TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Windsor (Imperial) | Jefferson (Festus) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 23.2 | 27.4 |
| PA / GAME | 29.0 | 27.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -5.8 | -5.4 |
| SOS | -3.2 | -2.1 |
| POWER | -6.9 | -6.1 |
WINDSOR (IMPERIAL) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Windsor (Imperial) finished the job, as Windsor (Imperial) and Jefferson (Festus) finished 34-20. MOFO's pick of Jefferson (Festus) missed; the model had projected a 25-28 final.
The actual margin was 14 points versus MOFO's 2.8-point projection. That produced a 16.8-point margin error, with score errors of 8.5 for Windsor (Imperial) and 8.3 for Jefferson (Festus).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD JEFFERSON (FESTUS)
MOFO leans toward Jefferson (Festus) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 0.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.8-point margin, with Jefferson (Festus) carrying a 59% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Jefferson (Festus) enters at 27.4 points per game compared with 23.2 for Windsor (Imperial). Jefferson (Festus) also allows 1.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -2.1 for Jefferson (Festus) and -3.2 for Windsor (Imperial). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Jefferson (Festus) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Jefferson (Festus) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 0.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.