TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Edwardsville (Ill.) | Jackson |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 24.6 | 39.8 |
| PA / GAME | 27.8 | 20.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -6.5 | +13.6 |
| SOS | +9.8 | +2.8 |
| POWER | -3.1 | +14.5 |
JACKSON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Jackson finished the job, as Edwardsville (Ill.) and Jackson finished 7-55. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 21-36 final.
The actual margin was 48 points versus MOFO's 15.0-point projection. That produced a 33.0-point margin error, with score errors of 13.7 for Edwardsville (Ill.) and 19.4 for Jackson.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD JACKSON
MOFO leans toward Jackson because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 17.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 15.0-point margin, with Jackson carrying a 88% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Jackson enters at 39.8 points per game compared with 24.6 for Edwardsville (Ill.). Jackson also allows 7.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.8 for Jackson and +9.8 for Edwardsville (Ill.). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Jackson owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Edwardsville (Ill.) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 17.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.