TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Mark Twain | Highland |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 16.2 | 19.8 |
| PA / GAME | 34.0 | 37.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -18.5 | -13.6 |
| SOS | +1.0 | -0.6 |
| POWER | -18.1 | -13.8 |
MARK TWAIN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Mark Twain finished the job, as Mark Twain and Highland finished 28-12. MOFO's pick of Highland missed; the model had projected a 27-27 final.
The actual margin was 16 points versus MOFO's 0.8-point projection. That produced a 16.8-point margin error, with score errors of 1.4 for Mark Twain and 15.3 for Highland.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HIGHLAND
MOFO leans toward Highland because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 4.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.8-point margin, with Highland carrying a 53% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Highland enters at 19.8 points per game compared with 16.2 for Mark Twain. Mark Twain's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.6 for Highland and +1.0 for Mark Twain. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Highland owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Mark Twain has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 4.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.