TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Camdenton | Heritage (Ark.) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 25.7 | 22.2 |
| PA / GAME | 33.4 | 30.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -6.8 | -22.8 |
| SOS | -0.2 | +4.0 |
| POWER | -6.9 | -21.3 |
CAMDENTON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Camdenton finished the job, as Camdenton and Heritage (Ark.) finished 47-40. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 30-26 final.
The actual margin was 7 points versus MOFO's 3.3-point projection. That produced a 3.7-point margin error, with score errors of 17.5 for Camdenton and 13.7 for Heritage (Ark.).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CAMDENTON
MOFO leans toward Camdenton because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 14.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.3-point margin, with Camdenton carrying a 61% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Camdenton enters at 25.7 points per game compared with 22.2 for Heritage (Ark.). Heritage (Ark.)'s defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.2 for Camdenton and +4.0 for Heritage (Ark.). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Camdenton owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Heritage (Ark.) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 14.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.