TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | South Shelby | Harrisburg |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 17.3 | 24.1 |
| PA / GAME | 28.7 | 27.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | -11.7 | -0.8 |
| SOS | +1.2 | +0.4 |
| POWER | -11.2 | -0.6 |
SOUTH SHELBY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
South Shelby finished the job, as South Shelby and Harrisburg finished 22-12. MOFO's pick of Harrisburg missed; the model had projected a 21-28 final.
The actual margin was 10 points versus MOFO's 6.4-point projection. That produced a 16.4-point margin error, with score errors of 0.9 for South Shelby and 15.6 for Harrisburg.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HARRISBURG
MOFO leans toward Harrisburg because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 10.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.4-point margin, with Harrisburg carrying a 70% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Harrisburg enters at 24.1 points per game compared with 17.3 for South Shelby. Harrisburg also allows 1.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +0.4 for Harrisburg and +1.2 for South Shelby. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Harrisburg owns the stronger scoring profile.
02South Shelby has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 10.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.