TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Helias Catholic | Hannibal |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 32.2 | 32.8 |
| PA / GAME | 19.7 | 16.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +9.3 | +13.9 |
| SOS | +2.9 | +2.2 |
| POWER | +10.3 | +14.7 |
HELIAS CATHOLIC WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Helias Catholic finished the job, as Helias Catholic and Hannibal finished 45-29. MOFO's pick of Hannibal missed; the model had projected a 24-27 final.
The actual margin was 16 points versus MOFO's 2.6-point projection. That produced a 18.6-point margin error, with score errors of 20.9 for Helias Catholic and 2.3 for Hannibal.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HANNIBAL
MOFO leans toward Hannibal because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 4.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.6-point margin, with Hannibal carrying a 59% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Hannibal enters at 32.8 points per game compared with 32.2 for Helias Catholic. Hannibal also allows 2.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.2 for Hannibal and +2.9 for Helias Catholic. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Hannibal owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Helias Catholic has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 4.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.