GREENFIELD WRITES THE FINAL WORD

Greenfield finished the job, as Liberal and Greenfield finished 44-58. MOFO's pick of Liberal missed; the model had projected a 39-33 final.

The actual margin was 14 points versus MOFO's 6.1-point projection. That produced a 20.1-point margin error, with score errors of 5.0 for Liberal and 25.1 for Greenfield.

THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LIBERAL

MOFO leans toward Liberal because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 4.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.1-point margin, with Liberal carrying a 69% win probability.

Greenfield actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Liberal also allows 13.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.

Strength of schedule checks in at -0.6 for Liberal and -0.7 for Greenfield. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.