TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Ruskin | Grain Valley |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 17.7 | 35.7 |
| PA / GAME | 35.4 | 23.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | -17.5 | +10.2 |
| SOS | +0.2 | +1.6 |
| POWER | -17.4 | +10.8 |
GRAIN VALLEY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Grain Valley finished the job, as Ruskin and Grain Valley finished 13-57. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 17-39 final.
The actual margin was 44 points versus MOFO's 21.2-point projection. That produced a 22.8-point margin error, with score errors of 4.5 for Ruskin and 18.3 for Grain Valley.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD GRAIN VALLEY
MOFO leans toward Grain Valley because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 28.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 21.2-point margin, with Grain Valley carrying a 94% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Grain Valley enters at 35.7 points per game compared with 17.7 for Ruskin. Grain Valley also allows 11.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +1.6 for Grain Valley and +0.2 for Ruskin. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Grain Valley owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Grain Valley has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 28.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.