GIBSON SOUTHERN HS WRITES THE FINAL WORD

Gibson Southern HS finished the job, as St. Pius X (Festus) and Gibson Southern HS finished 21-37. MOFO's pick of St. Pius X (Festus) missed; the model had projected a 27-23 final.

The actual margin was 16 points versus MOFO's 4.1-point projection. That produced a 20.1-point margin error, with score errors of 5.8 for St. Pius X (Festus) and 14.2 for Gibson Southern HS.

THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ST. PIUS X (FESTUS)

MOFO leans toward St. Pius X (Festus) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.1-point margin, with St. Pius X (Festus) carrying a 63% win probability.

The clearest separator is scoring: St. Pius X (Festus) enters at 28.8 points per game compared with 24.0 for Gibson Southern HS. St. Pius X (Festus) also allows 1.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.

Strength of schedule checks in at +1.8 for St. Pius X (Festus) and +0.0 for Gibson Southern HS. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low — no season data.