DUPO (ILL.) WRITES THE FINAL WORD

Dupo (Ill.) finished the job, as Bayless with Hancock and Dupo (Ill.) finished 14-26. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 21-33 final.

The actual margin was 12 points versus MOFO's 11.8-point projection. That produced a 0.2-point margin error, with score errors of 7.2 for Bayless with Hancock and 7.1 for Dupo (Ill.).

THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD DUPO (ILL.)

MOFO leans toward Dupo (Ill.) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 20.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 11.8-point margin, with Dupo (Ill.) carrying a 83% win probability.

The clearest separator is scoring: Dupo (Ill.) enters at 30.7 points per game compared with 20.0 for Bayless with Hancock. Dupo (Ill.) also allows 4.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.

Strength of schedule checks in at -8.3 for Dupo (Ill.) and -1.8 for Bayless with Hancock. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.