TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Rich Hill | Drexel |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 20.0 | 38.6 |
| PA / GAME | 42.6 | 33.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -20.4 | +6.6 |
| SOS | +0.3 | -3.5 |
| POWER | -20.3 | +5.4 |
RICH HILL WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Rich Hill finished the job, as Rich Hill and Drexel finished 14-10. MOFO's pick of Drexel missed; the model had projected a 24-43 final.
The actual margin was 4 points versus MOFO's 19.6-point projection. That produced a 23.6-point margin error, with score errors of 9.8 for Rich Hill and 33.4 for Drexel.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD DREXEL
MOFO leans toward Drexel because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 25.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 19.6-point margin, with Drexel carrying a 93% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Drexel enters at 38.6 points per game compared with 20.0 for Rich Hill. Drexel also allows 9.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -3.5 for Drexel and +0.3 for Rich Hill. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Drexel owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Rich Hill has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 25.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.