TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | St. Vincent | DeSoto |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 26.4 | 23.2 |
| PA / GAME | 22.0 | 23.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | +6.8 | -1.5 |
| SOS | -0.5 | +1.0 |
| POWER | +6.6 | -1.2 |
ST. VINCENT WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Vincent finished the job, as St. Vincent and DeSoto finished 14-7. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 26-22 final.
The actual margin was 7 points versus MOFO's 4.0-point projection. That produced a 3.0-point margin error, with score errors of 11.7 for St. Vincent and 14.7 for DeSoto.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ST. VINCENT
MOFO leans toward St. Vincent because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.0-point margin, with St. Vincent carrying a 63% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: St. Vincent enters at 26.4 points per game compared with 23.2 for DeSoto. St. Vincent also allows 1.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.5 for St. Vincent and +1.0 for DeSoto. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01St. Vincent owns the stronger scoring profile.
02DeSoto has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.