TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Capital City | Conway (AR) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 30.3 | 24.0 |
| PA / GAME | 24.1 | 24.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +5.0 | +0.0 |
| SOS | -0.1 | +0.0 |
| POWER | +5.0 | +0.0 |
CONWAY (AR) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Conway (AR) finished the job, as Capital City and Conway (AR) finished 7-45. MOFO's pick of Capital City missed; the model had projected a 28-23 final.
The actual margin was 38 points versus MOFO's 4.2-point projection. That produced a 42.2-point margin error, with score errors of 20.7 for Capital City and 21.5 for Conway (AR).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CAPITAL CITY
MOFO leans toward Capital City because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.2-point margin, with Capital City carrying a 64% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Capital City enters at 30.3 points per game compared with 24.0 for Conway (AR). Conway (AR)'s defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.1 for Capital City and +0.0 for Conway (AR). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low — no season data.
01Capital City owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Conway (AR) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 5.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.