TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | St. Charles West | Clayton with Brentwood |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 26.6 | 18.0 |
| PA / GAME | 29.5 | 33.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -2.0 | -12.8 |
| SOS | -1.0 | -1.3 |
| POWER | -2.3 | -13.2 |
ST. CHARLES WEST WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Charles West finished the job, as St. Charles West and Clayton with Brentwood finished 62-16. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 31-23 final.
The actual margin was 46 points versus MOFO's 8.7-point projection. That produced a 37.3-point margin error, with score errors of 30.8 for St. Charles West and 6.6 for Clayton with Brentwood.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ST. CHARLES WEST
MOFO leans toward St. Charles West because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 10.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 8.7-point margin, with St. Charles West carrying a 76% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: St. Charles West enters at 26.6 points per game compared with 18.0 for Clayton with Brentwood. St. Charles West also allows 3.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -1.0 for St. Charles West and -1.3 for Clayton with Brentwood. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01St. Charles West owns the stronger scoring profile.
02St. Charles West has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 10.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.