TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Palmyra | Chillicothe |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 33.6 | 21.8 |
| PA / GAME | 23.7 | 21.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | +8.8 | +1.1 |
| SOS | +0.3 | -1.4 |
| POWER | +8.9 | +0.6 |
CHILLICOTHE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Chillicothe finished the job, as Palmyra and Chillicothe finished 13-18. MOFO's pick of Palmyra missed; the model had projected a 29-22 final.
The actual margin was 5 points versus MOFO's 6.9-point projection. That produced a 11.9-point margin error, with score errors of 15.6 for Palmyra and 3.8 for Chillicothe.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD PALMYRA
MOFO leans toward Palmyra because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 8.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.9-point margin, with Palmyra carrying a 71% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Palmyra enters at 33.6 points per game compared with 21.8 for Chillicothe. Chillicothe's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +0.3 for Palmyra and -1.4 for Chillicothe. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Palmyra owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Palmyra has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 8.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.