STALEY WRITES THE FINAL WORD

Staley finished the job, as Staley and Central (St. Joseph) finished 31-12. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 26-26 final.

The actual margin was 19 points versus MOFO's 0.0-point projection. That produced a 19.0-point margin error, with score errors of 4.8 for Staley and 14.2 for Central (St. Joseph).

THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD STALEY

MOFO leans toward Staley because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 1.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.0-point margin, with Staley carrying a 50% win probability.

Central (St. Joseph) actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Staley also allows 2.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.

Strength of schedule checks in at +1.5 for Staley and -5.3 for Central (St. Joseph). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.