TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Liberty (Wentzville) | Central (Cape Girardeau) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 31.2 | 25.2 |
| PA / GAME | 20.3 | 21.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | +11.9 | +5.3 |
| SOS | -1.1 | +1.3 |
| POWER | +11.5 | +5.8 |
CENTRAL (CAPE GIRARDEAU) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Central (Cape Girardeau) finished the job, as Liberty (Wentzville) and Central (Cape Girardeau) finished 3-17. MOFO's pick of Liberty (Wentzville) missed; the model had projected a 27-22 final.
The actual margin was 14 points versus MOFO's 4.7-point projection. That produced a 18.7-point margin error, with score errors of 23.9 for Liberty (Wentzville) and 5.2 for Central (Cape Girardeau).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LIBERTY (WENTZVILLE)
MOFO leans toward Liberty (Wentzville) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.7-point margin, with Liberty (Wentzville) carrying a 65% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Liberty (Wentzville) enters at 31.2 points per game compared with 25.2 for Central (Cape Girardeau). Liberty (Wentzville) also allows 1.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -1.1 for Liberty (Wentzville) and +1.3 for Central (Cape Girardeau). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Liberty (Wentzville) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Central (Cape Girardeau) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 5.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.