TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Monett | Cassville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 36.1 | 29.0 |
| PA / GAME | 31.2 | 24.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | +1.9 | +3.9 |
| SOS | +2.0 | +2.3 |
| POWER | +2.6 | +4.7 |
CASSVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Cassville finished the job, as Monett and Cassville finished 18-47. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 30-30 final.
The actual margin was 29 points versus MOFO's 0.1-point projection. That produced a 28.9-point margin error, with score errors of 12.2 for Monett and 16.7 for Cassville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CASSVILLE
MOFO leans toward Cassville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 2.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.1-point margin, with Cassville carrying a 50% win probability.
Monett actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Cassville also allows 6.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.3 for Cassville and +2.0 for Monett. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Monett owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Cassville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 2.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.