TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Fayette | Carrollton |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 21.4 | 25.4 |
| PA / GAME | 29.8 | 25.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | -8.6 | +1.3 |
| SOS | -0.3 | -6.2 |
| POWER | -8.6 | -0.9 |
CARROLLTON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Carrollton finished the job, as Fayette and Carrollton finished 0-42. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 23-28 final.
The actual margin was 42 points versus MOFO's 5.7-point projection. That produced a 36.3-point margin error, with score errors of 22.7 for Fayette and 13.6 for Carrollton.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CARROLLTON
MOFO leans toward Carrollton because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.7-point margin, with Carrollton carrying a 68% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Carrollton enters at 25.4 points per game compared with 21.4 for Fayette. Carrollton also allows 4.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -6.2 for Carrollton and -0.3 for Fayette. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Carrollton owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Fayette has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.