TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Adrian | Butler |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 27.6 | 25.7 |
| PA / GAME | 20.4 | 25.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +6.3 | -0.9 |
| SOS | -1.1 | +1.1 |
| POWER | +5.9 | -0.6 |
ADRIAN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Adrian finished the job, as Adrian and Butler finished 27-26. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 27-22 final.
The actual margin was 1 points versus MOFO's 4.8-point projection. That produced a 3.8-point margin error, with score errors of 0.2 for Adrian and 3.6 for Butler.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ADRIAN
MOFO leans toward Adrian because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.8-point margin, with Adrian carrying a 65% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Adrian enters at 27.6 points per game compared with 25.7 for Butler. Adrian also allows 5.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -1.1 for Adrian and +1.1 for Butler. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Adrian owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Butler has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.