TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Excelsior Springs | Boonville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 17.7 | 29.6 |
| PA / GAME | 32.9 | 23.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -16.7 | +8.2 |
| SOS | -0.3 | -1.8 |
| POWER | -16.8 | +7.6 |
BOONVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Boonville finished the job, as Excelsior Springs and Boonville finished 22-54. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 18-34 final.
The actual margin was 32 points versus MOFO's 15.8-point projection. That produced a 16.2-point margin error, with score errors of 3.9 for Excelsior Springs and 20.1 for Boonville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD BOONVILLE
MOFO leans toward Boonville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 24.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 15.8-point margin, with Boonville carrying a 89% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Boonville enters at 29.6 points per game compared with 17.7 for Excelsior Springs. Boonville also allows 9.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -1.8 for Boonville and -0.3 for Excelsior Springs. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Boonville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Excelsior Springs has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 24.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.