Risk Dashboard

The Risk of Dying Doing What We Love

A rough, “same-hours-played” comparison of how risky different fun things are, using commercial aviation as the baseline.

✈️
Benchmark: Commercial Aviation

Extremely safe compared with most activities.

≈ 1 death in 10 million hours of flying (≈ 1,141 years).

Chance of dying in the next 1,000 hours of flying: ≈ 0.01%

Generally Safe Activities
(≈ 2–9× as dangerous as commercial aviation)
Driving (US)

1 death in 2.3 million hours ≈ 262 years.

Chance of death in next 1,000 hours ≈ 0.04%.

≈ 4× as dangerous as commercial aviation.
Cycling (US)

1 death in 1.3 million hours ≈ 148 years.

Chance of death in next 1,000 hours ≈ 0.08%.

≈ 8× as dangerous as commercial aviation.
⛷️
Resort Skiing (Colorado)

1 death in 1.4 million hours ≈ 160 years.

Chance of death in next 1,000 hours ≈ 0.07%.

≈ 7× as dangerous as commercial aviation.
Somewhat Dangerous Activities
(≈ 10–50× as dangerous as commercial aviation)
Backcountry Skiing (Austria)

1 death in 600,000 hours ≈ 68 years.

Chance of death in next 1,000 hours ≈ 0.17%.

≈ 17× as dangerous as commercial aviation.
‍♂️
Marathon Running (US)

1 death in 600,000 hours ≈ 68 years.

Chance of death in next 1,000 hours ≈ 0.17%.

≈ 17× as dangerous as commercial aviation.
Open Water Swimming (UK)

1 death in 320,000 hours ≈ 36 years.

Chance of death in next 1,000 hours ≈ 0.31%.

≈ 31× as dangerous as commercial aviation.
Equestrian Eventing

1 death in 200,000 hours ≈ 23 years.

Chance of death in next 1,000 hours ≈ 0.5%.

≈ 50× as dangerous as commercial aviation.
Dangerous Activities
(≈ 100–1,000× as dangerous as commercial aviation)
錄
Scuba Diving

1 death in 120,000 hours ≈ 14 years.

Chance of death in next 1,000 hours ≈ 0.8%.

≈ 83× as dangerous as commercial aviation.
️
General Aviation (US)

1 death in 64,000 hours ≈ 7 years.

Chance of death in next 1,000 hours ≈ 1.6%.

≈ 156× as dangerous as commercial aviation.
‍♂️
Hang Gliding (UK)

1 death in 40,000 hours ≈ 5 years.

Chance of death in next 1,000 hours ≈ 2.5%.

≈ 250× as dangerous as commercial aviation.
‍♂️
Downhill Mountain Biking (US)

1 death in 35,000 hours ≈ 4 years.

Chance of death in next 1,000 hours ≈ 2.9%.

≈ 286× as dangerous as commercial aviation.
️
Motorcycling (US)

1 death in 100,000 hours ≈ 11 years.

Chance of death in next 1,000 hours ≈ 1%.

≈ 100× as dangerous as commercial aviation.
廒
Flying Sailplanes (Germany, France)

1 death in 50,000 hours ≈ 6 years.

Chance of death in next 1,000 hours ≈ 2%.

≈ 200× as dangerous as commercial aviation.
廒
Paragliding (Germany)

1 death in 35,000 hours ≈ 4 years.

Chance of death in next 1,000 hours ≈ 2.9%.

≈ 288× as dangerous as commercial aviation.
廒
Skydiving

1 death in 18,000 hours ≈ 2 years.

Chance of death in next 1,000 hours ≈ 5.6%.

≈ 556× as dangerous as commercial aviation.
Very Dangerous Activities
(more than 1,000× as dangerous as commercial aviation)
⛰️
Climbing the Tetons (US)

1 death in 8,000 hours ≈ 11 months.

Chance of death in next 1,000 hours ≈ 12%.

≈ 1,250× as dangerous as commercial aviation.
️
Summitting Mt. Everest (final push)

1 death in 2,500 hours ≈ 4 months.

Chance of death in next 1,000 hours ≈ 40%.

≈ 4,000× as dangerous as commercial aviation.
️
Formula 1 Car Racing (Worldwide)

1 death in 5,000 hours ≈ 7 months.

Chance of death in next 1,000 hours ≈ 20%.

≈ 2,000× as dangerous as commercial aviation.
Insanely Dangerous Activities
(more than 100,000× as dangerous as commercial aviation)
廒
Base Jumping

1 death in just 21 hours of jumping.

Chance of death in next 1,000 hours: > 99%.

≈ 480,000× as dangerous as commercial aviation.

Sources & assumptions: Original numbers are approximate and compiled from various national statistics and studies to make a like-for-like comparison of death risk per hour of activity. This page is for perspective only, not for precise risk planning.