FRI OCT 02 · 12:00 AM · CBSSNWestern KY AT New Mexico StAggie Memorial Stadium
💪 FAVORITE
PROJECTEDWKU 24NMSU 33
FINALWKU 13NMSU 34
PICKNew Mexico St
WKU +330NMSU -330
9.0POINTS
77%
MEDIUM
THE MODEL'S VIEW
WEEK 5
Projected scores, win probabilities, fair moneylines, and a little responsible chaos.
59GAMES FORECAST
34ONE-SCORE GAMES
8.1AVG PROJECTED MARGIN
4UPSET PICKS
💵 COFO FAIR MONEYLINEAmerican odds implied by model probability. These are not sportsbook lines and include no bookmaker margin.
MATCHUPPROJECTED / ACTUALCOFO PICKFAIR MLEDGEWINCONFIDENCE
FRI OCT 02 · 01:00 AM · ESPNNorth Texas AT TulsaH. A. Chapman Stadium
🐶 DOG🪙 COIN FLIP
PROJECTEDUNT 27TLSA 27
FINALUNT 45TLSA 44
PICKTulsa
UNT +100TLSA -100
0.0POINTS
50%
LOW
FRI OCT 02 · 11:00 PM · ESPNPitt AT Virginia TechLane Stadium
🪙 COIN FLIP
PROJECTEDPITT 27VT 26
FINALPITT 35VT 33
PICKPitt
PITT -115VT +115
1.0POINTS
53%
LOW
FRI OCT 02 · 11:00 PM · CBSSNLiberty AT DelawareDelaware Stadium
💪 FAVORITE😬 NAIL BITER
PROJECTEDLIB 29DEL 22
FINALLIB 30DEL 14
PICKLiberty
LIB -255DEL +255
6.9POINTS
72%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 12:00 AM · FOXPenn State AT NorthwesternRyan Field
😬 NAIL BITER
PROJECTEDPSU 27NU 24
FINALPSU 13NU 34
PICKPenn State
PSU -140NU +140
2.6POINTS
58%
LOW
SAT OCT 03 · 03:00 PM · ESPN+Memphis AT CharlotteJerry Richardson Stadium
💪 FAVORITE
PROJECTEDMEM 34CLT 23
ACTUALMEM 0CLT 0
PICKMemphis
MEM -430CLT +430
11.0POINTS
81%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 04:00 PM · ESPN, Disney+#3 Notre Dame AT North CarolinaKenan Stadium
💪 FAVORITE
PROJECTEDND 29UNC 18
ACTUALND 0UNC 0
PICKNotre Dame
ND -445UNC +445
11.2POINTS
82%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 04:00 PM · ABC#7 Alabama AT #16 Mississippi StDavis Wade Stadium
🪙 COIN FLIP
PROJECTEDALA 32MSST 30
ACTUALALA 0MSST 0
PICKAlabama
ALA -140MSST +140
2.4POINTS
58%
LOW
SAT OCT 03 · 04:00 PM · ESPN2UCF AT #20 HoustonTDECU Stadium
😬 NAIL BITER
PROJECTEDUCF 27HOU 30
ACTUALUCF 0HOU 0
PICKHouston
UCF +165HOU -165
3.7POINTS
62%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 04:00 PM · CWBoston College AT #21 SMUGerald J. Ford Stadium
💪 FAVORITE
PROJECTEDBC 22SMU 31
ACTUALBC 0SMU 0
PICKSMU
BC +325SMU -325
8.9POINTS
77%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 04:00 PM · ESPNUMTSU AT KansasDavid Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium
😬 NAIL BITER
PROJECTEDMTSU 24KU 27
ACTUALMTSU 0KU 0
PICKKansas
MTSU +150KU -150
3.1POINTS
60%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 04:00 PM · TNTWest Virginia AT Iowa StateJack Trice Stadium
😬 NAIL BITER
PROJECTEDWVU 26ISU 28
ACTUALWVU 0ISU 0
PICKIowa State
WVU +145ISU -145
2.9POINTS
59%
LOW
SAT OCT 03 · 04:00 PM · ACC NetworkStanford AT Wake ForestAllegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
💪 FAVORITE
PROJECTEDSTAN 23WAKE 33
ACTUALSTAN 0WAKE 0
PICKWake Forest
STAN +395WAKE -395
10.3POINTS
80%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 04:00 PM · CBSSNSyracuse AT UConnPratt & Whitney Stadium
🪙 COIN FLIP
PROJECTEDSYR 27CONN 27
ACTUALSYR 0CONN 0
PICKUConn
SYR +110CONN -110
0.7POINTS
52%
LOW
SAT OCT 03 · 04:00 PM · FOXMichigan AT MinnesotaHuntington Bank Stadium
🐶 DOG😬 NAIL BITER
PROJECTEDMICH 23MINN 26
ACTUALMICH 0MINN 0
PICKMinnesota
MICH +140MINN -140
2.5POINTS
58%
LOW
SAT OCT 03 · 04:00 PM · CBSNavy AT Air ForceFalcon Stadium
😬 NAIL BITER
PROJECTEDNAVY 25AFA 31
ACTUALNAVY 0AFA 0
PICKAir Force
NAVY +200AFA -200
5.2POINTS
67%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 04:30 PM · BTNMichigan St AT WisconsinCamp Randall Stadium
💪 FAVORITE
PROJECTEDMSU 21WIS 29
ACTUALMSU 0WIS 0
PICKWisconsin
MSU +285WIS -285
7.8POINTS
74%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 04:45 PM · SEC NetworkVanderbilt AT #2 GeorgiaSanford Stadium
👑 SUPER FAVORITE
PROJECTEDVAN 20UGA 38
ACTUALVAN 0UGA 0
PICKGeorgia
VAN +1165UGA -1165
18.4POINTS
92%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 05:00 PM · ESPN+W Michigan AT BuffaloBroadview Stadium
💪 FAVORITE😬 NAIL BITER
PROJECTEDWMU 29BUFF 22
ACTUALWMU 0BUFF 0
PICKW Michigan
WMU -250BUFF +250
6.8POINTS
71%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 06:00 PM · ESPN+Toledo AT Ball StateScheumann Stadium
👑 SUPER FAVORITE
PROJECTEDTOL 38BALL 22
ACTUALTOL 0BALL 0
PICKToledo
TOL -780BALL +780
15.4POINTS
89%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 07:30 PM · CBS#5 Ohio State AT #14 IowaKinnick Stadium
😬 NAIL BITER
PROJECTEDOSU 27IOWA 24
ACTUALOSU 0IOWA 0
PICKOhio State
OSU -140IOWA +140
2.6POINTS
59%
LOW
SAT OCT 03 · 07:30 PM · ABC#8 Florida AT #25 MissouriMemorial Stadium
💪 FAVORITE😬 NAIL BITER
PROJECTEDFLA 34MIZ 28
ACTUALFLA 0MIZ 0
PICKFlorida
FLA -235MIZ +235
6.4POINTS
70%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 07:30 PM · ESPNAuburn AT #17 TennesseeNeyland Stadium
💪 FAVORITE
PROJECTEDAUB 23TENN 31
ACTUALAUB 0TENN 0
PICKTennessee
AUB +280TENN -280
7.8POINTS
74%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 07:30 PM · CBSSNCalifornia AT UNLVAllegiant Stadium
🐶 DOG🪙 COIN FLIP
PROJECTEDCAL 24UNLV 25
ACTUALCAL 0UNLV 0
PICKUNLV
CAL +105UNLV -105
0.4POINTS
51%
LOW
SAT OCT 03 · 07:30 PM · ACC NetworkLouisville AT NC StateCarter-Finley Stadium
🐶 DOG🪙 COIN FLIP
PROJECTEDLOU 30NCSU 32
ACTUALLOU 0NCSU 0
PICKNC State
LOU +125NCSU -125
1.6POINTS
55%
LOW
SAT OCT 03 · 07:30 PM · ESPN2Virginia AT Florida StDoak Campbell Stadium
💪 FAVORITE
PROJECTEDUVA 31FSU 24
ACTUALUVA 0FSU 0
PICKVirginia
UVA -275FSU +275
7.6POINTS
73%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 07:30 PM · ESPN+Samford AT UABProtective Stadium
👑 SUPER FAVORITE
PROJECTEDSAM 20UAB 31
ACTUALSAM 0UAB 0
PICKUAB
SAM +475UAB -475
11.7POINTS
83%
LOW — PRESEASON SWAG
SAT OCT 03 · 07:30 PM · CWWyoming AT N Dakota StFargodome
👑 SUPER FAVORITE
PROJECTEDWYO 16NDSU 31
ACTUALWYO 0NDSU 0
PICKN Dakota St
WYO +730NDSU -730
14.9POINTS
88%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 07:30 PM · ESPN+Akron AT C MichiganKelly/Shorts Stadium
🪙 COIN FLIP
PROJECTEDAKR 23CMU 25
ACTUALAKR 0CMU 0
PICKC Michigan
AKR +135CMU -135
2.3POINTS
58%
LOW
SAT OCT 03 · 07:30 PM · ESPN+E Michigan AT UMassWarren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
👑 SUPER FAVORITE
PROJECTEDEMU 15MASS 34
ACTUALEMU 0MASS 0
PICKUMass
EMU +1300MASS -1300
19.2POINTS
93%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 07:30 PM · ESPN+Ohio AT Kent StateZoeller Field at Dix Stadium
💪 FAVORITE😬 NAIL BITER
PROJECTEDOHIO 31KENT 25
ACTUALOHIO 0KENT 0
PICKOhio
OHIO -240KENT +240
6.5POINTS
70%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 07:30 PM · ESPN+Bowling Green AT Miami OHYager Stadium
👑 SUPER FAVORITE
PROJECTEDBGSU 19M-OH 34
ACTUALBGSU 0M-OH 0
PICKMiami OH
BGSU +790M-OH -790
15.5POINTS
89%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 07:30 PM · ESPN+Old Dominion AT Georgia StCenter Parc Stadium
👑 SUPER FAVORITE
PROJECTEDODU 21GAST 35
ACTUALODU 0GAST 0
PICKGeorgia St
ODU +640GAST -640
13.9POINTS
86%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 07:45 PM · ESPNUMarshall AT James MadisonBridgeforth Stadium
👑 SUPER FAVORITE
PROJECTEDMRSH 18JMU 38
ACTUALMRSH 0JMU 0
PICKJames Madison
MRSH +1400JMU -1400
19.8POINTS
93%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 08:00 PM · FS1Maryland AT NebraskaMemorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
👑 SUPER FAVORITE
PROJECTEDMD 20NEB 35
ACTUALMD 0NEB 0
PICKNebraska
MD +740NEB -740
15.0POINTS
88%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 08:00 PM · MW+UTEP AT New MexicoUniversity Stadium (NM)
👑 SUPER FAVORITE
PROJECTEDUTEP 15UNM 38
ACTUALUTEP 0UNM 0
PICKNew Mexico
UTEP +1900UNM -1900
23.3POINTS
95%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 08:15 PM · SEC Network#24 Kentucky AT South CarolinaWilliams-Brice Stadium
🐶 DOG🚨 UPSET PICK😬 NAIL BITER
PROJECTEDUK 28SC 31
ACTUALUK 0SC 0
PICKSouth Carolina
UK +150SC -150
3.1POINTS
60%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 08:15 PM · BTNPurdue AT IllinoisGies Memorial Stadium
💪 FAVORITE
PROJECTEDPUR 26ILL 36
ACTUALPUR 0ILL 0
PICKIllinois
PUR +370ILL -370
9.8POINTS
79%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 10:00 PM · USA NetOregon St AT Colorado StCanvas Stadium
🪙 COIN FLIP
PROJECTEDORST 31CSU 30
ACTUALORST 0CSU 0
PICKOregon St
ORST -110CSU +110
0.8POINTS
53%
LOW
SAT OCT 03 · 10:00 PM · ESPN+Texas Southern AT FAUFlagler Credit Union Stadium
👑 SUPER FAVORITE
PROJECTEDTXSO 19FAU 37
ACTUALTXSO 0FAU 0
PICKFAU
TXSO +1140FAU -1140
18.3POINTS
92%
LOW
SAT OCT 03 · 11:00 PM · ESPN, Disney+#10 BYU AT TCUAmon G. Carter Stadium
🪙 COIN FLIP
PROJECTEDBYU 27TCU 25
ACTUALBYU 0TCU 0
PICKBYU
BYU -140TCU +140
2.4POINTS
58%
LOW
SAT OCT 03 · 11:00 PM · ESPN2Arkansas AT Texas A&MKyle Field
💪 FAVORITE
PROJECTEDARK 22TA&M 30
ACTUALARK 0TA&M 0
PICKTexas A&M
ARK +300TA&M -300
8.2POINTS
75%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 11:00 PM · ESPN+UTSA AT RiceFirst Community Stadium
💪 FAVORITE😬 NAIL BITER
PROJECTEDUTSA 31RICE 25
ACTUALUTSA 0RICE 0
PICKUTSA
UTSA -245RICE +245
6.7POINTS
71%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 11:00 PM · ESPN+GA Southern AT CoastalBrooks Stadium (SC)
😬 NAIL BITER
PROJECTEDGASO 23CCU 27
ACTUALGASO 0CCU 0
PICKCoastal
GASO +170CCU -170
3.9POINTS
63%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 11:00 PM · ESPN+UL Monroe AT South AlabamaHancock Whitney Stadium
👑 SUPER FAVORITE
PROJECTEDULM 24USA 36
ACTUALULM 0USA 0
PICKSouth Alabama
ULM +485USA -485
11.8POINTS
83%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 11:30 PM · ABC#4 Miami AT ClemsonMemorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
👑 SUPER FAVORITE
PROJECTEDMIA 34CLEM 18
ACTUALMIA 0CLEM 0
PICKMiami
MIA -825CLEM +825
15.8POINTS
89%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 11:30 PM · FOX#12 Texas Tech AT ColoradoFolsom Field
💪 FAVORITE
PROJECTEDTTU 31COLO 21
ACTUALTTU 0COLO 0
PICKTexas Tech
TTU -365COLO +365
9.7POINTS
78%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 11:30 PM · NBCWashington AT #18 USCLos Angeles Memorial Coliseum
😬 NAIL BITER
PROJECTEDWASH 26USC 30
ACTUALWASH 0USC 0
PICKUSC
WASH +175USC -175
4.2POINTS
64%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 11:30 PM · CBSSNUtah State AT #22 Boise StAlbertsons Stadium
👑 SUPER FAVORITE
PROJECTEDUSU 17BOIS 31
ACTUALUSU 0BOIS 0
PICKBoise St
USU +610BOIS -610
13.5POINTS
86%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 11:30 PM · ESPNUTemple AT South FloridaRaymond James Stadium
💪 FAVORITE
PROJECTEDTEM 21USF 30
ACTUALTEM 0USF 0
PICKSouth Florida
TEM +360USF -360
9.6POINTS
78%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 11:30 PM · ESPN+Army AT Louisiana TechJoe Aillet Stadium
😬 NAIL BITER
PROJECTEDARMY 30LT 27
ACTUALARMY 0LT 0
PICKArmy
ARMY -165LT +165
3.7POINTS
62%
MEDIUM
SAT OCT 03 · 11:45 PM · SEC NetworkMcNeese AT #11 LSUTiger Stadium (LA)
👑 SUPER FAVORITE
PROJECTEDMCN 15LSU 39
ACTUALMCN 0LSU 0
PICKLSU
MCN +1900LSU -1900
24.1POINTS
95%
LOW — PRESEASON SWAG
SUN OCT 04 · 12:00 AM · BTN#6 Indiana AT RutgersSHI Stadium
👑 SUPER FAVORITE
PROJECTEDIU 34RUTG 22
ACTUALIU 0RUTG 0
PICKIndiana
IU -500RUTG +500
12.1POINTS
83%
MEDIUM
SUN OCT 04 · 12:00 AM · ESPN+Arkansas St AT LouisianaOur Lady of Lourdes Stadium
💪 FAVORITE😬 NAIL BITER
PROJECTEDARST 22UL 29
ACTUALARST 0UL 0
PICKLouisiana
ARST +245UL -245
6.8POINTS
71%
MEDIUM
SUN OCT 04 · 01:30 AM · USA NetFresno St AT Washington StMartin Stadium
😬 NAIL BITER
PROJECTEDFRES 27WSU 22
ACTUALFRES 0WSU 0
PICKFresno St
FRES -195WSU +195
5.0POINTS
66%
MEDIUM
SUN OCT 04 · 02:30 AM · ESPNBaylor AT Arizona StMountain America Stadium
🪙 COIN FLIP
PROJECTEDBAY 28ASU 25
ACTUALBAY 0ASU 0
PICKBaylor
BAY -140ASU +140
2.4POINTS
58%
LOW
SUN OCT 04 · 02:30 AM · CWTexas St AT San Diego StSnapdragon Stadium
😬 NAIL BITER
PROJECTEDTXST 31SDSU 27
ACTUALTXST 0SDSU 0
PICKTexas St
TXST -175SDSU +175
4.1POINTS
63%
MEDIUM
SUN OCT 04 · 03:00 AM · FOXCincinnati AT ArizonaCasino Del Sol Stadium
🪙 COIN FLIP
PROJECTEDCIN 29ARIZ 27
ACTUALCIN 0ARIZ 0
PICKCincinnati
CIN -125ARIZ +125
1.6POINTS
55%
LOW
SUN OCT 04 · 03:59 AM · MW+San José St AT Hawai'iClarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
🪙 COIN FLIP
PROJECTEDSJSU 25HAW 24
ACTUALSJSU 0HAW 0
PICKSan José St
SJSU -115HAW +115
1.0POINTS
53%
LOW